Should I Fight This Dispute? Decision Framework

Short answer: Fight only with strong evidence AND low freeze risk. Fighting weak cases increases your dispute rate when you lose, accelerating the path to account holds.

The Decision Rule

Fight if ALL of these are true:

✅ Win probability is Medium or High (greater than 40%)
✅ You have clear, dated evidence with no gaps
✅ Your current dispute rate is Low (less than 0.5%)
✅ The transaction value exceeds dispute costs ($15 fee + time)

Refund immediately if ANY of these are true:

❌ Win probability is Low (less than 40%)
❌ Evidence is weak, missing, or unclear
❌ Your dispute rate is elevated (greater than 0.75%)
❌ You’re near freeze thresholds (multiple disputes in 30 days)
❌ Transaction value is small (less than $50)

What Banks Actually Respond To

Banks review hundreds of disputes daily. They respond to:

Evidence That Works

✅ Clear timestamps - Delivery dates, login times, cancellation dates
✅ Customer acknowledgment - Emails, chat logs, signed receipts
✅ Usage logs - Account activity, downloads, feature access
✅ Policy acceptance - Checkout screenshots showing terms
✅ Refund documentation - Proof refund was already processed
✅ Authentication proof - 3DS logs, AVS/CVV matches

Evidence That Doesn’t Work

❌ Long explanations without proof
❌ “Our policy is clear” without showing disclosure
❌ Generic transaction records
❌ Emotional appeals or customer blame
❌ Incomplete documentation
❌ Evidence submitted after deadline

The ROI Calculation

Cost of fighting:

$15 Stripe dispute fee (non-refundable even if you win)
2-4 hours of time gathering evidence
Risk of losing = dispute counts against your rate
Potential account hold if rate increases

Cost of refunding:

Transaction amount refunded
Original processing fee (2.9% + $0.30)
No dispute fee
No impact on dispute rate (if refunded before dispute)

Example:

$40 transaction
Fighting cost: $15 fee + 3 hours time + risk
Refunding cost: $40 + $1.46 = $41.46
If win probability less than 60%, refund is cheaper

Decision Framework by Dispute Type

High Win Rate (Fight if evidence is strong)

Duplicate Charge: 60-75% win rate with distinct order IDs
Late Presentment: 80-90% win rate with timely submission proof
Product Not Received: 40-60% win rate with delivery confirmation

Medium Win Rate (Fight only with excellent evidence)

Subscription Canceled: 40-60% win rate with cancellation timing logs
Credit Not Processed: 45-65% win rate with refund documentation
Incorrect Amount: 50-70% win rate with authorization proof

Low Win Rate (Rarely worth fighting)

Unauthorized: 10-25% win rate without 3D Secure
10.4 Fraud: 15-25% win rate without authentication
Card-Not-Present Fraud: 10-20% win rate without 3DS

Freeze Risk Assessment

Your current dispute rate matters MORE than individual dispute value:

If dispute rate is less than 0.5%:

Safe to fight strong cases
Losing 1-2 disputes won’t trigger holds

If dispute rate is 0.5-0.75%:

Fight only very strong cases (greater than 60% win probability)
Refund anything questionable

If dispute rate is greater than 0.75%:

Refund everything except slam-dunk wins
You’re approaching freeze threshold
Losing fights accelerates account holds

When to ALWAYS Refund

Refund immediately if:

You’re at fault - Shipping delay, billing error, service issue
Evidence is weak - Missing logs, no documentation
Customer has valid claim - Legitimate complaint
Dispute rate is elevated - Greater than 0.75%
Transaction is small - Less than $50
You’re near thresholds - Multiple disputes in 30 days

When to ALWAYS Fight

Fight if:

You have 3D Secure authentication - Liability shifts to issuer
Refund was already processed - Clear documentation
Late presentment with timely submission - Technical win
Clear duplicate with distinct orders - High win rate
Delivery proof is airtight - Signature, photo, GPS

The Strategic Refund

Proactive refunding BEFORE disputes:

Customer emails complaint → Refund immediately
Shipping delayed → Offer refund before customer asks
Product issue → Refund + apologize
Confusion → Refund + fix communication

Result: No dispute filed = no impact on dispute rate

This is cheaper than:

$15 dispute fee
Time fighting
Risk of losing
Potential account hold

Clear Verdict

Fight only disputes you can win cleanly without increasing freeze risk.

The math:

Winning a dispute = $0 impact (but you paid $15 fee)
Losing a dispute = Increases dispute rate + $15 fee + transaction loss
Refunding before dispute = Transaction loss only, no rate impact

Strategic approach:

Calculate win probability based on evidence quality
Assess current dispute rate and freeze risk
Compare costs (fighting vs. refunding)
Fight only if win probability greater than 60% AND dispute rate less than 0.75%
Refund everything else to protect your account

Assess Your Dispute Risk (30 seconds)

Related guides: When NOT to Fight • Is Fighting Worth It? • 1% Chargeback Rate • Account Frozen